Senator the Hon Mathias Cormann

The January Monthly Financial Statements report the budget position against the expected monthly profile through to 31 January 2020.

This is not indicative of a trend in the overall budget position or expected final budget outcome.

The 2019-20 MYEFO estimated the Budget outcome for 2019-20 to be a surplus of $5 billion.

As we consistently caution, monthly results are inevitably volatile due to timing differences between when receipts are received and when payments are made.

The months of December and January over the years have consistently been two of the most volatile with the highest deviation from the indicative profile.

Also, historically, payments exceed receipts until the latter half of the financial year which generally results in the monthly profiles for the first half of the financial year being lower than the final budget outcome.

Great care therefore needs to be taken when comparing monthly or cumulative data across years and to full-year estimates.

The Government is of course very conscious of the fact that the coronavirus, following on from the drought and bushfires, will have a negative impact on our economy and consequently is likely to have an impact on our Budget.

However it remains too early to assess precisely what that impact will be. We will reconcile all of the relevant data and revised forecasts and projections in the 2020-21 Budget to be delivered on the second Tuesday in May.